Regular readers of the Dental Dean Update will have noticed in 2024 that there was a key theme running through my 2024 blogs, that of the technology influencing the future of the profession of dentistry. This was of course backed up by my concerns in relation to patient and public safety and dental access around the world. I hope that you find these communications of interest, whether you are a part of The Royal College of Surgeons of Edinburgh or not, and a suitable complement to the more formal articles in our excellent Surgeons’ News.
At this point you might want to know what will be my key themes for 2025, but before providing any clues, I thought readers might be interested that while enjoying some downtime over the Christmas and New Year period, this gave me an opportunity to reflect on forecasting and predicting the future. Like many people in our College, I am an avid listener to BBC Radio 4 and enjoy the variety and sincerity of the majority of the programmes from current affairs to the arts, history, comedy and science. I must concede that The Archers escapes me though, but perhaps one day!
The Radio 4 Shipping Forecast is a staple of my listening, and despite instantaneous global communication, gadgets for everything and the AI revolution, has a listener base of several hundred thousand, celebrating its centenary in 2024 with a series of programmes on Radio 4. The rhythm, cadence and cryptic names in this fascinating piece of daily poetry have captivated many with Fair Isle, Forties, Utsire, Dogger, Fisher and German Bight intriguing me as well, and I am sure many other listeners. Whether an early riser or an insomniac, the lullaby allows the mind to imagine being on a ship sailing such high waters with the oil lamp swaying gently. On a personal note, the Shipping Forecast reminds me of my father who was an academic marine engineer. However, the shipping forecast is not really about shipping, it is really a much broader forecast for shipping with the broadcast focusing on wind, a general synopsis, visibility, precipitation and so on.
Back to the topic. Is forecasting the future important? Of course it is essential in relation to decision-making, resource allocation, risk management, setting goals and targets, budgeting and financial planning and procurement of supplies, all important aspects of the business of dentistry and wider healthcare. In dentistry, forecasting future dental treatment need is important both for patients, and in determining the population need for dental care, as well as planning funding allocations.
We know that there is a strong positive correlation for patients with a history of dental intervention and future treatment need. Furthermore, the NHS Business Service Authority statistics show that 34 million courses of treatment were delivered in England during 2023/24 for 24.6 million patients with 24,200 dentists performing NHS dental activity (Dental statistics – England 2023/24 | NHSBSA) The Labour government promised an extra 700,000 dental appointments each year in England in the run up to the June 2024 general election, and whilst this is a welcome increase, it only represents a forecast increase of 2.85% on 2023-24 appointment levels. Bearing in mind that the data for 2023/24 was an increase of 4.3% on 2022/23, the UK government forecast does not provide any confidence that NHS dentistry in England will improve in the short-term, which is disappointing. To get back to pre-COVID levels of NHS dentistry, an extra 4 million appointments are needed. The Faculty of Dental Surgery will of course continue to articulate the need for this situation to be addressed with immediate effect.
You will therefore not be surprised that population access to dental care across the globe will continue to be an important theme of activity for the Faculty of Dental Surgery, with patient safety remaining a fundamental principle of all of the Faculty’s external communications. I am sure readers will not be surprised either that the 2025 blogs will continue the regular exploration of innovations and other items of interest. I am intrigued by photo-biomodulation, probiotics, tele-dentistry, 3D imaging and printing, as well as the other key domains for patients, including anxiety reduction and sustainability. Indeed, the Faculty symposium in September will be dedicated to the management of dental pain and anxiety – I would encourage you to look out for more details as they emerge. Our other showpiece events, the dental skills competitions, both in the UK and internationally are currently being planned, and in September we will join with the American Association of Paediatric Dentistry and the European Association of Paediatric Dentistry in delivering a large international conference hosted in the College. Our educational programme will also be increased in 2025 to support our Members and Fellows, and accompanied by a significant expansion in examination activity, the Faculty will grow in many directions this year, accompanied by ever more Diploma Ceremonies and other events.
I appreciate that my forecast for 2025 has of course exceeded the respective 350 and 380 word limit for the 05:20 and 00:48 Shipping Forecast broadcasts, but can reassure the Faculty and wider College that the 2025 outlook for the Faculty of Dental Surgery is excellent. Despite the occasional precipitation in Forth, good visibility, gentle atmospheric pressure, and calm winds will drive the Faculty and College forwards across all the sea areas and inshore waters of the UK, and across all areas of global interest for The Royal College of Surgeons of Edinburgh.
Wherever you are in the world, please feel free to send a message, even in a bottle to dental@rcsed.ac.uk.